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DIAGNOSTICS OF THE WELFARE OF INDIVIDUALS AND INHABITED AREA: MULTIFACTORIAL ANALYSIS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Alexander Kuklin, I. Korobkov

Abstract

The changes in the socio-economic system of the Russian Federation and its regions have brought us to focus on the dynamics of these changes through the selection of main indicators characterizing socio-economic crisis, latent processes and choice of ways out of the crisis. We consider the current state of the system taking into account external trends. Using traditional statistical indicators for this purpose is not always justified. Negative trends that accompany the development of economically advanced countries and low innovativeness in the global market are characteristic for the Russian Federation. Our research is based on the authorsВ’ method of the diagnostics of the welfare of individuals and inhabited area (on the example of the Ural Federal District). The assessment of the welfare of individuals and inhabited area, which was presented earlier and included 94 indicators in 8 modules, has showed to be reliable. However, for the express diagnostics, this method was too complex and did not allow prompt respond to changes. This shortage was especially evident in estimating the impact of certain result-based measures and in forecasting. This paper presents a multiparametric system (index of the welfare of individuals and inhabited area), which includes 6 basic indicators: rate of natural increase; ratio of budgetary spending on education to Gross Regional Product (GRP); amount of mortgage arrears; ratio of budgetary spending on healthcare to GRP; total unemployment; percentage of the population with incomes below the subsistence level. We made calculations of these 6 indicators both without correction due to their respective impacts and based on the matrix of respective impacts (using the method of economic tomography). This approach has allowed receiving comparative analysis and reveal emerging latent trends. Moreover, the received results more precisely define the directions of changes, demonstrate the degree of the crisis (using the scale of crises) and enable to forecast options of the system behaviour. We use the term sustainability, understanding it as an ability to be resilient to dramatic changes in those indicators, which lead the value of the index of the welfare of individuals and inhabited area from normal state to the crisis. We classify crisis degree which became the result of these dramatic changes as distorting. For non-distorting levels of crisis, we forecast the remaining ability to resist. We calculate the values of the parameters, which indicate their transformation into distorting crisis. This authorВ’s method became the basis for a software product and can be used as a reliable toolkit for choosing scenarios of the regional socio-economic development.

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