Scholarly record
MORTALITY RATE ESTIMATE FOR THE OLD AGE POPULATION BY BOOTSTRAP METHOD
Abstract
One of the factors of the economic and financial prosperity of the country is the age structure of the population. The bases for the age population structure calculation are the statistical tables. The indicator specific mortality rate is usually calculated on the base of the known data concerning the death people and living people. The Makeham - Gompertz function is one of the commonly used models for the mortality modelling of the population. Parameters of this function are mostly estimated for example by the method of the partial sums. This method however fails at very high old age group mortality estimation. The big problem is lack of data at these age groups for the statistical processing by the classical methods. An alternative approach of the solution of this problem is presented in the article, namely application of the bootstrap method. Its principle is the determination of residuals, creating of their bootstrap samples and subsequently calculation of a model that is used to estimate population mortality rate in the old age. Characteristics specific mortality rate was calculated for the age categories 85 – 105. 5000 bootstrap simulations were done and the same number of bootstrap replications of the parameters k, a, b of the Gompertz – Makeham function were calculated. Results for male and female age group were found and compared. Differences between the results of the classical methods used at official mortality tables calculation and results gained by the help of bootstrap methods are compared.
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