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FORECAST OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SKILL HETEROGENEOUS LABOR MARKET IN RUSSIA

A. Vasilyeva

Abstract

In the Russian economy, there is a growing staff shortage, among the key reasons of which are 1) decline and aging of population; 2) growing structural deformation of labor market; and 3) preservation of labor-intensive type of economy. Effective regulation of the labor market in Russia demands consideration its economy taking into account the heterogeneity of labor formed through the processes of population reproduction and migration. For this purpose, we develop a model that allows forecasting development of skill heterogeneous labor market within a search-matching framework taking into account dynamics of population reproduction and migration. To automate the implementation of the model, we developed a Java/JavaScript-based computer program that ensures a high speed of data exchange with statistical databases, calibration and forecasting, and provides a wide range of services for presenting the results. We calibrate the model to data from Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries for the period 2005–2014 and forecast the effects of native population decline and immigrant growth that will took place in the Russian economy during the period 2017–2030. Despite the projected increase in migration by 34%, the total labor force of the Russian Federation by 2030 will reduce by almost 5% compared to 2017 and will amount to 74,137 thousand people. At the same time, the share of high-skilled labor in Russia will decrease from 53.6% in 2017 to 52.0% in 2030. In turn, the negative dynamics of quantitative and qualitative indicators of the labor force will lead to a fall in the Gross Regional Product of the Russian Federation by 2030 to 61,163.66 billion rubles (in constant prices in 2014), which is 3.2% less than in 2017. As for the low-skilled labor market, its outcomes will not be deteriorated by immigrant growth: the average wage of a low-skilled worker will increase by 2.1% by 2030 compared to 2017; the unemployment rate among the low-skilled labor force in 2017–2030 will fluctuate at the level of 6.0–6.1%. Thus, while maintaining the labor-intensive type of economy, immigration will be a safe, necessary, but insufficient resource for maintaining the gross regional product of Russia, at least at the current level.

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DOI resolver: doi.org/10.5593/sgemsocial2018/1.4/S04.041

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