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DEMAND FORECASTING IN RETAIL GROCERY STORES IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC
Abstract
Demand forecasting plays a key role in the management of logistics processes in retailing. The quality of the resulting forecasts has a direct impact on the efficiency of processes not only in retail stores, but also throughout the supply chain they are part of. Retail stores are in fact in daily contact with end customers in the supply chain, and therefore they are largely involved in forecasting in the application of collaborative strategies in supply chain management (e.g. Quick Response, Effective Consumer Response, Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment). The level of demand forecasting in retail grocery stores in the Czech Republic was the subject of the quantitative research. The main objective of the research was to find out what methods are used in demand forecasting, what factors affecting demand for food are considered and what sources of information retail stores use to base the forecasting on. When analyzing the data obtained through personal inquiries in 75 retail outlets, methods of descriptive and inferential statistics were used. The research showed that retailers rely in demand forecasting mainly on their own intuition and experience in retailing, and therefore qualitative methods of forecasting are applied most frequently. Although retailers consider a variety of factors influencing the demand, the research has identified an absence of statistical methods that are able to effectively implement the influence of factors into the final predictions. The article also discusses the differences among stores with sales area of different sizes and depending on the affiliation of the store with a retail chain. A low rate of applying quantitative forecasting methods in retail stores and the availability of a small base of input information on the demand of end customers can have a negative impact on the implementation of modern methods in supply chain management.
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