Scholarly record

FORECASTING OF GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT OF THE VOLGA FEDERAL DISTRICT REGIONS BY R. SOLOWВ’S DYNAMIC MACROECONOMIC MODEL OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

T. Kokotkina, N. Sadovin, A. Degtyareva

Abstract

The article considers questions of applying the dynamic macroeconomic model of economic growth R. Solow for modeling and forecasting the dynamics of gross regional product on the example of the Volga federal district regions. The models were built at current and comparable prices, taking into account (and without taking into account) funds input delay. Multiplicative production functions were considered as a production function taking into account (and without taking into account) scientific and technical progress. For models construction such macroeconomic indicators as the gross regional product, the cost of fixed production assets, the population, the number of labor resources employed in the economy, the number of economically active population, and investments in fixed assets for the period 2000-2015 were chosen. Examples of the results of numerical experiments on building R.SolowВ’s models for the Volga Federal District regions and estimating the delay parameter for the funds input are given, which makes it possible to estimate the rate of investments development for the region in the whole. For construction the forecasts of gross regional product the appropriate software "EGRMod v 2.0" was developed to work under Windows operating systems in the MS Access environment or under the control of the Access Runtime library. To accumulate data, an external Access database is used. Numerical calculations are performed in the SQL language using VBA.

Publication details

Back to publication list