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MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF DYNAMICS REGIONAL POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE

V. A. Gordon, O. V. Pilipenko, T. V. Poturaeva

First published: 2017https://doi.org/10.5593/sgemsocial2017/41/S18.050View metrics

Abstract

The paper presents mathematical model of the changing age structure of the population of the region is submitted. The population is considered as a system consisting of three groups: working age, young age and elderly age. The model is a system of differential equations with respect to shares of the above three age groups in the general population and the corresponding initial conditions. The model parameters are the coefficients of fertility, mortality and age-shifting, obtained by processing statistical demographic data in a wide range of time. It confirmed an adequate description of the model changes in the age structure by comparison with known statistical data of the Orel region over a 14-year span from 2000 to 2013. It gave the forecast for the next 13 years from 2014 to 2026. National tendencies of population aging and reducing the share of working-age population contingent in composition of population were confirmed for the Orel region.

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Title
MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF DYNAMICS REGIONAL POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE
Authors
V. A. Gordon, O. V. Pilipenko, T. V. Poturaeva
Proceedings
4th International Multidisciplinary Scientific Conference on Social Sciences and Arts SGEM 2017
Publisher
STEF92 Technology
Year
2017
Pages
393-400
SWS Citekey
Gordon201718393400
ISSN
2367-5659
ISBN
978-619-7408-23-2
Language
en
Publication type
Proceedings Paper
Keywords
age groupsworking-age populationmodelingsystem of differential equationsaging populationaging population.
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