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EXCHANGE RATES AND TRADE BALANCE IN POLAND AND SELECTED EU COUNTRIES IN 2008-2016
Abstract
The aim of the paper is to evaluate the role of the exchange rate in shaping the export of Poland and selected European Union countries: Sweden, the United Kingdom, Hungary, Denmark and the Czech Republic in the years 2008-2016. The author presented exchange rate regimes in the analyzed countries and assessed if the choice of applied exchange rate system had a significant impact on the variability of nominal exchange rates. Subsequently, changes in real effective exchange rates (REER) and their impact on export competitiveness were examined. In order to assess the role of the exchange rate as an automatic counter-cyclical mechanism, the author evaluated changes in trade balances in the analysed countries and the correlation between REER and trade balance using panel regression analysis. Main conclusions of the analysis: - REER was an important factor affecting the trade balance, particularly in the group of developing countries, - the improvement in the trade balance during the crisis resulted from a strong decline in domestic demand and an improvement in price competitiveness of exports resulting from the depreciation of exchange rates.
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