Scholarly record

MODELING OF OPTIMAL STRUCTURE OF THE PASSENGERS TRANSPORT IN BULGARIA

R. Nikolaev, T. Milkova, D. Zhelyazkova

Abstract

Economically justified solutions concerning the European transport system are crucial for the competitiveness of the Alliance throughout the World, for the financial growth, for reducing the unemployment and for improving the standards of living. It is exactly the free movement of people across the borders which is one of the four types of freedom typical for the European citizens, together with the free transportation of goods, services and capital. For realizing the mobility of its citizens each country creates preconditions for development of a variety of transport alternatives incl. bus, railway, waterway (maritime, inland waterways) and air transport. In the present research paper an attempt has been made for modeling optimal structure of the passengers transport aiming the maximization of the total transportation costs from each mode of transport for a certain interval of time, measured in total kilometers for total number of passengers. Using the methodology of Mathematical Modeling a non-linear mathematical model is constructed and it is transformed into linear in terms of its easier calculation. The created and tested model of the problem for optimizing the total transportation amount from the passengers transport in Bulgaria for the period 2008-2015 is a good empirical base for realizing a row of experiments with different time range and forecasting lag, which can be applied successfully at international, national and regional level. Its potential allows the forecasting in a comparative order with real data to serve in the future for approving or rejecting of hypotheses with tactical significance. The forecasted values of the indicators for the total transportation amount from each mode of transport in Bulgaria are a good base for defining basic conclusions in comparative order with the anticipated expectations for the development of the transport sector in the European Union.

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