Scholarly record
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN GLOBAL TRADE FLOWS: DRIVING FORCES AND BARRIERS
Abstract
Global trade flows have been strongly affected by the worldwide economic crisis that broke out in 2008. Trade collapse in 2009 was deep but followed by a swift recovery in 2010-2011. However, later on the situation got complicated - growth rates have been much lower than expected and in 2015-2016 trade flows declined once again. The goal of the paper is to analyze the main trends in global trade flows - in terms of growth, changes in geographical structure etc. and point out main factors affecting trade in a positive way and barriers to the continuous growth of world exports. Analysis is mainly focused on the 2015-2018 period. It points to some of the more obvious factors affecting the nominal growth rate of world trade such as exchange rates and world prices. However, those determinants do not completely explain the changes in trade flows in recent years. There are other issues that appear to be affecting the growth capabilities of world exports such as: changes in economic activity, protectionist pressures and trade war threats, peaking of the internationalization processes and a re-focusing of countries towards domestic economies. The policies towards trade play a particular role in fostering development of trade - they can either become strong driving forces or interferences hindering the flows of goods and services.
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