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FORECASTING VALUE OF EXTERNAL TRADE OF COUNTRY CONTROLLING FOR SEASONAL VARIATIONS

Aleksandra Deviatilova, A. Ershov, V. Tciklauri

Abstract

The relevance of the study is confirmed by the fact that in the context of interchangeability seasons, activities of economic bases come with changes intension dynamics social-economic processes. So as to could be purposefully inform to seasonality, necessarily rate and analyze their. The aim of this study is developing forecast of external turnover country controlling for seasonal component. To achieve this goal the following problems were solved: analyze quarter data about dynamics of external turnover; assess the seasonal component of the constructed additive model; determine the average estimates of the seasonal component for each quarter; show general dynamics of external turnover inclusive of projected value. Methodology. In this research paper theoretical and empirical research methods are used, e.g. literature review, system analysis, and survey of industry complex. In this article, we used economic-mathematical and statistical analysis methods. Sources of information are the economic and other special literature, articles from periodicals, the results of the research, the experience of leading foreign companies. The result of this research became consequence that forecasting such a complex and large-scale macroeconomic indicator, such as value of external trade of country. ItВ’s better to produce through macroeconomic structured models, considering the state of the whole economy and modeling various scenarios for the development of macroeconomic indicators.

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