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HOUSEHOLDS AND COMPANIES’ ECONOMIC PERCEPTION DURING PANDEMIC TIMES – AN EXPLORATORY APPROACH
Abstract
The paper aims at assessing the amplitude of the change in households and business environment perception and confidence regarding the economic prospects in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is employed an exploratory unsupervised technique called cluster analysis, by using two proxy variables computed and published periodically by OECD, namely the consumer confidence index and the business confidence index. The focus is on the 23 European countries which are members of the OECD. The analysis has been run distinctly for two time periods, namely April 2019 (representing a normal time) and April 2020 (a period characterized by the most severe restrictions and lockdown). The results show an increase of the pessimistic attitude in 2020, with a peak for the business environment. In 2019, the dissimilarity between countries was mainly due to the more conservative or prudent expectations of the business environment, meanwhile in 2020 the cross-country dissimilarity is amplified by the values recorded by both confidence indicators.
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References8
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