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SMART CITIES IN THE FAR NORTH IN 2038. TEN FACTORS THAT WILL INFLUENCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SMART CITIES THE COMING TWENTY YEARS

A. Vicentiy, I. Vicentiy

Abstract

Smart cities are a relatively new phenomenon that requires careful study. A particularly interesting and complex issue is the question of the prospects for the development of smart cities in the far north and in the Arctic zone. Arctic and northern territories have a number of features, such as the focal (localized) nature of economic activity, the uneven distribution of people, the concentration of the population in cities, the low population density, harsh climatic conditions, low transport accessibility, underdeveloped transport system, etc. In this regard, cities in the far north are the main type of settlement for a large number of citizens. The area of large cities in the far north (such as Murmansk, TromsГё, Norilsk and others) can range from several hundred to several thousand square kilometers. Therefore, we consider cities as complex spatially-distributed bio-socio-economic systems that can be managed using information systems for supporting regional governance based on spatial data. For effective management of smart cities in the far north you need a good understanding of the goals and prospects of their development. This article describes the main factors that will influence the development of smart cities in the far north in the next twenty years. To assess the impact of these factors on the development of smart cities and to identify the main dependencies between them, we used the system approach and the scenarios method. Based on the analysis of available scientific data, the main trends in the development of the world economy and driving forces in the Arctic, certain assumptions, uncertainties and "wild cards" were formulated. Using them, we created several scenarios for the potential development of smart cities in the far north. Also in the last part of the article we pay attention to the problems of smart cities management. As effective management tools, we propose to use information systems supporting regional management with a cognitive interface and tools for dynamic visualization of spatial data.

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