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CYBERNETIC MODELLING OF CRISIS AND CONFLICT SITUATIONS
Abstract
Many centuries of social experience lead to the conclusion that conflicts and crisises are an inherent feature of all social activities, regardless of their nature, extent, social and cultural environment. The different assumption, namely that there are activities without internal or external contradictions, which appear in relationships between the participants of activities and their closer or further environment, should be treated as an assumption idealizing social reality. Social conflicts and crisises result from the development of a situation of conflicting interests, i.e. the products of specific objective and subjective conditions. Each such situation is a dynamic phenomenon, i.e. process that can lead to conflict as a result of the accumulation of various causes that are both subjective (e.g. willingness to undertake intended and planned actions) and objective (e.g. unintended events of a random or deterministic nature). The modelling of dynamic systems is indeed a struggle with the uncertainty and complexity of the real world. However, the non-linear nature of dynamic phenomena does not preclude the cognitive capabilities of these processes. Therefore, the main research problem is expressed in a question: how to capture strictly and precisely the nature and the underlying causes and regularities related to crises and conflicts in the social world? An attempt to answer this research question is the present study in system-cybernetic convection. In order to achieve this effectively, the research methods of sociocybernetics and the adoption of cyber causation must be applied.
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