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THE INFLUENCE OF THE INFORMATION CONTEXT ON THE DYNAMICS OF INVESTMENTS IN RUSSIA
Abstract
The paper is devoted to the role of information context in dynamics of investments in the Russian Federation. The basis for the study was a selection of news from major Russian TV channels for 2006-2016. The news available to ordinary viewers of the three main Russian television channels was analyzed. News was defined as negative or positive using two methods: according to linguistic characteristics and their economic meaning. In obedience to the results of the study. Increased uncertainty (the spread of positive and negative news) leads to choice of consumption to the detriment of savings, which, thereafter, reduces the investment base of the economy. The authors analyzes the connection of the tonality of news and its changes with the business cycle. The authors found an information cycle that, with some lag, correlates with the business cycle in the Russian Federation. The deviations from the traditional model of rational expectations are investigated, the hypotheses of the rational inattention is testing. Based on the study, recommendations are offered for the public policy adjusting. The authors of the work uses methods of correlation-regression analysis and mathematical modeling.
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