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SCENARIO PREDICTION OF IMPLEMENTING COGNITIVE MAP METHODOLOGY IN TERMS OF COUNTERACTING PROTEST ACTIVITY IN RUSSIA

A. Naydyonov

Abstract

The key finding of the previous research is the fact that protests are a result of a multifactorial negative impact of socio-economic factors on an individual and group consciousness of citizens. Thus, effective counteracting protest activity assumes managing and administrating social and economic processes in order to neglect threats and overcome negative consequences of crisis in society and economy. The research reveals methodology of counteracting protest activity on the basis of cognitive maps which is an effective way to organize governance of social and economic processes. As a part of this methodology we show special modeling techniques for scenario prediction of consequences of implementing particular governing actions in context of using cognitive maps when making managerial decisions with respect to counteracting protest activities. The main advantage of techniques being developed in course of research project is that the scenario modeling allows not only to build potential trajectories of social and economic development, their influence on increase or decrease of protest potential, but also to determine the confidence intervals of the constructed forecasts. Cross-validation on sample data for Russian regions shows robustness of built models and their applicability to practical usage in state governance.

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DOI resolver: doi.org/10.5593/sgemsocial2018/1.3/S04.095

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