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GDP FORECASTING FOR PROACTIVE MANAGEMENT OF TERRITORIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMICS: OVERVIEW OF ECONOMIC APPROACHES AND FORECASTING MODELS
Abstract
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the most important indicators of the system of national accounts, which characterizes the final result of the production activity and dynamics of the market value of all final goods and services, produced during the year in all sectors of the economy in the territory of country for consumption, export and accumulation, regardless of national appurtenance of used production factors. For proactive management of territorial development of the national economy, it is important to have reliable and statistically significant GDP predictions. Research is aimed at systematizing of known forecasting techniques applicable for the evaluation of future GDP for long and short term period of pre-emption. Purpose: to undertake a comparative analysis of economic approaches and models for forecasting macroeconomic indicators of socio-economic development of the country, required for proactive management of structural dynamic parameters of economic development. The results. The basic forecasting methods that can be used for proactive measure of GDP are reviewed. Statistical information, that characterized the dynamics of the GDP of the G7 countries and innovative leaders is generalized, statistical forecasting based on multifactor non-linear regression models and trend methods is conducted. The results of this research can be used in the development of the public structural policies, strategic planning for economic development and in educational process.
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