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THE IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHICS ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE BRICS COUNTRIES
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of the demographics on the economic development on the BRICS countries during 2009-2021. The BRICS countries as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are known starting 2009 (and 2010 for South Africa respectively), they are fast growing economies, emerging markets in the second stage of demographic transition and highly heterogeneous countries in most social economic features. Due to the fact they are counting for more than 40% of the global population, the demographic impact on the economic development should be significant. EViews 8 was used for linear regression with Ordinary Least Squares, where the dependent variable is GDP per capita and the independent variables are age dependency rate, death rate, fertility rate and labor force population 15-64. Correlations, Unit Root Test, Collinearity Test and Granger Causality were performed as well. The findings: There is a strong, positive correlation between GDP per capita and labor force 15-64 and negative correlations between GDP per capita and fertility rate and age dependency rate respectively, which is in line with the previous studies. Among the demographic indicators, fertility rate has a negative influence on GDP per capita, while age dependency rate, death rate and labor force have a positive influence. Death rate was found to have a positive influence on GDP per capital, in contradiction with the previous studies. There is Granger causality between labor force and GDP, as well as between GDP per capita and life expectancy.
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