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REGIONAL TRENDS IN CHANGING THE WELFARE OF INDIVIDUALS AND INHABITED AREAS: POST CRISIS FORECAST INHABITED AREA
Abstract
The economic literature published the last five years includes many different versions explaining the occurrence, development and possible way out of the socio-economic crisis. We are in a situation where the old economic structure lags behind in its technological development and the existing inertia delays restructuring. In addition, there are new complex threats (for example, the sanctions). The behavior of socio-economic regional systems, that have their own methodological characteristics and, to some extent, are "protected" from external threats, represents a particular interest. One of such original research subjects is the Ural Federal District (UFD). It includes several typical regions: old industrial regions; oil and gas-rich regions; an underdeveloped region without a pronounced industrial specificity; a region markedly depending on other ones. It would be erroneous to judge about the changes only by considering the GRP, since the key economic indicators are simultaneously in a complex relationship with other indicators and are actively interacting with each other. In other words, they do not reflect the current picture and the prospects. The economic tomography, a new method of analysis developed by the author, causes to take a different look at the dynamics of processes. The article presents the analysis based on a comparison of the welfare of individual and the inhabited area with the economic security of the region. This approach can be explained by the desire to consider, on the one hand, social and economic trends depending on the real state of the region at a specific stage of the ongoing systemic economic 5-year crisis and on the other hand also to see the behavior of 13 spheres of the vital activity of the region within the framework of economic security. According to our estimates, we are dealing with a 5-year economic crisis (from 2015 to 2019), with a possible way out to the level of relatively the normal state in 2020. The analyzed regions are currently in the middle stage of the crisis, they maintain a relatively stable level of economic security, and have their own immunity and the potential for resistance. The way out of the crisis will be without sharp breakthroughs and leaps, which can be explained by the unpreparedness of regions for such development and accumulated "sore points" in the multilayer socio-economic system of the Russian Federation. The author provided a quantified description for 9 variants of crisis and proposed 6 development scenarios. The social scenario (the most applicable in a protracted crisis) appears is the most realistic.
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References8
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