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FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STATE ECONOMY

Aleksandra Deviatilova, S. Emelyanov, E. Ershova

Abstract

The relevance of the study isconfirmed by the fact that over the past few decades worldwide degree of export sociability and correlation of national economies, increased dramatically values and intensity of international trade and international capital movement, accelerated the forming of global finance markets. These factorsare exhibit comprehensive, disposition of development of the modern world –globalization. The aim of this study is forecasting of development major macroeconomic indicators: export and import operations of international economic activity. To achieve thisgoal the following problems were solved: to study and apply model QUIMMIR –quarter macroeconomic model of interaction for Russia, which relays cooperation of production, incomings and expansiveness in economics; to consider three sceneries of developmentfor Russia. It differs export terms and economic policy of countries; to lead the scenario forecast of trends macroeconomic indicators for Russia through models QUIMMIR. Methodological basis of the study: methods of system analysis, comparisons and analogies, logical-semantic modeling. As the theoretical basis used in the works of domestic and foreign scholars in the field of macroeconomic forecasting. Sources of information are the economic and other special literature, articles from periodicals, the results of the research, the experience of leading foreign companies. The result of this research became forecast of development external turnover in Russia, revelation optimal proportions of sustainable development export activities, elaboration ways of modernization international economic activity of state.

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DOI resolver: doi.org/10.5593/sgemsocial2018/1.5/S05.051

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