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INTEGRAL VALUATION OF SUSTAINABILITY OF REGIONAL SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT
Abstract
The paper suggests and tests the methodology for quantitative evaluation of sustainability of a regional socio-economic system development. More precise attention is paid to the role that ICT and innovation dynamic factors play in the process of regional development. The research hypothesis: there is a significant probability of the Russian regional economic systems shift to the knowledge-based economy mode, that stands on several social development determinants, mainly human capital and innovation. The task of quantitative valuation of sustainability is proposed to be resolved using the calculation of generalized integral index entailing the following components: 1) economic relations; 2) social situation; 3) institutional environment; 4) potential for innovation. The index structure was adopted from UNDP HDI calculation frameworks. Basic indicators selection procedure, subject to integration within the generalized sustainability index, employed internationally recognized practices and multifactor regression analysis techniques that allow to determine correlations between factors that influence HDI as well as to derive quantitative measures of their interrelation density. The methodology was applied to the Russian regions sustainability valuation and key factors identification in terms of regional development in Russia. The analysis of sustainability indices indicates that the majority of Russian regions cannot be recognized as sustainable. Calculations prove the conclusion about low interrelation between innovation dynamics and economic development in Russia, thus indicating the misbalance between demand and supply-side factors of innovation in favor of the latter.
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