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STATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF INTEGRATED MACRO RISKS OF THE FUEL AND ENERGY COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT

S. Arzhenovskiy, T. Sinyavskaya

Abstract

Modern fuel and energy complex is an important element of global economy. Its development produces risks for global and national economic systems. ItВ’s very important to develop tools for quantitative assessment these risks. For today an empirical studies that use statistical tools for solving this problem are very rare. We propose to conduct a comprehensive formal evaluation of the energy vulnerability by building ratings of the countries. The rating is based upon a number of indicators related to key energy vulnerabilities. To build the rating we use a multidimensional statistical approach. It is a consistent application of factor and cluster analysis methods to the underpinning data of BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2016. The advantages of the approach are its versatility, as well as verifiability, reliability and generality of the resulting estimates. We identify four main energy vulnerability factors: energy consumption, reserves and capacities, production and electricity generation. As a result, four rating classes characterizing the level of risks of the fuel and energy complex development were identified. Rating classes are located with decreasing order of development of fuel and energy complex and, accordingly, increasing the level of risks. Clusters two to four have a significantly higher risk of fuel and energy complex development than the first. At the second stage we divided three last classes into subclasses to obtain more accurate final risk ratings. Minimum level of integrated macroeconomic risk of fuel and energy complex development have Russian Federation, USA and China, maximum - Costa Rica, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Ireland and Slovakia.

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DOI resolver: doi.org/10.5593/sgemsocial2018/1.3/S04.098

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