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FORECASTING MODELS OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS

M. V. Shiryaev, E. S. Mityakov, S. N. Mityakov, D. N. Lapaev, L. V. Kulagina

Abstract

The article presents forecasting methods of economic dynamics developed by the authors. The first model is based on the mechanism of adaptive filtering of timing series. This article demonstrates prediction filters that can be effectively used in moni-toring of economic systems. Their approbation was carried out on the basis of data pro-vided by the local office of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Nizhny Novgorod region. The quantitative information was insufficient to reveal a significant statistical advantage of any of the adaptive methods. However, we managed to create a quite sim-ple and efficient class of prediction filters. The second model is based on an analysis of the dynamics of the socio-economic systems using the systems of differential equations. We proposed an adaptive algorithm for identifying the parameters of a system of differential equations describing the dynamics of generalized indicators of the system of sustainable development of the Nizhny Novgorod region. We set up a system of ordinary differential equations, de-scribing the joint dynamics of the integral indicators of the socio-economic system. The proposed forecasting models describe the changing trends of the socio-economic systems development.

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DOI resolver: doi.org/10.5593/sgemsocial2017/14/S04.046

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